Reports about terrorist strikes nowadays ring of a cold familiarity, which most people painfully mistake for just that. They overlook the wisdom of viewing such unfortunate events with unrelenting calm to deliver a poignant message of futility to the perpetrators.

That is perhaps the most important lesson that the tourism fraternity has drawn. Tourism, owing to its non-confrontational, apolitical nature has not just risen above the threat of tourism. It is now being perceived as an unmistakable instrument of peace that could well see off this threat.

Tourism is symbolic in so much as saying that people have moved on from moments of adversity instead of brooding on them and staying grounded in 'safe' zones. This has also happened in a perverse sense when NYC, Washington, Madrid and London were attacked within a space of five years, obliterating the 'safe haven' illusion. Yet, this industry, once perceived as fragile and economic sitting duck in light of geo-political crises has assumed a pragmatic character and thick skin. This has catapulted it from one that is only momentarily reactive to an ambassador of peace and quiet resilience.

The serial terrorist strikes in the US in September 2001 struck at the heart of the world's biggest tourism and aviation industry, bringing them both to their knees. Leading US carriers slipped into bankruptcy or verged on it and tourists worldwide stayed home, if simply for the fear of flying.

The industry had never prepared for disasters of such scale in perceptibly two of the world's safest cities. Security fears may dampen demand for air travel in the short term, industry watchers said, after British police foiled a plan to blow up trans-Atlantic jetliners, but they won't throw US airlines off their long recovery from the 9/11 attacks. It took US airlines almost five years to regain pre-2001 passenger levels and it will take a catastrophe of similar proportions to shake it off the turnaround path. Five years ago, the hijack plane attacks on New York and Washington cut US air traffic by 20 per cent, hastening the decline of four major carriers into bankruptcy, as the industry shed more than 1,00,000 jobs and lost billions of dollars.

Before 9/11, travel and tourism was the world's largest industry, accounting for one in every 12 jobs. When the massive US $3.6 trillion industry almost ground to a halt after the attacks, Worldwatch Institute, a Washington D C-based environmental research organisation reported: 'The aftermath of September 11 has shown us how important travel and tourism are to the global economy, but also how over-dependence on tourism can devastate lives and derail economies.' International tourism grew by only about two percent in 2001 compared with the robust 7.4 percent rise in 2000.

The International Labour Organisation estimated that as many as nine million of the world's 200 million hotel and tourism workers stood to lose their jobs in the wake of the attacks. Nearly three quarters of these positions are outside the US and Europe, many in countries with weak social safety nets. Besides such direct short and long-term costs, indirect costs of terrorism include the need for greater advertising expenses to attract more tourists, reconstruction costs for damaged tourist facilities, and security enforcement expenses to lessen terrorist threats. Major airports in Europe and the Medite-rranean have had to make costly improvements in security in response to the growing terrorist attacks.

All of the above fallouts, the ones predicted or played out, are relevant even today. The tide, however, both in the minds of industry players and the situation on ground is remarkably turned. The latest plan for an attack won't have nearly the same effect, analysts say. Many stressed the ultimate resilience of the air travel market worldwide. "As we have seen after previous terrorist events, the world will still fly," comments one expert. The same World Travel & Tourism Council that forecast a season of woe in the aftermath of 9/11 expected a minimal impact on tourism from the London blasts. The impact on international arrivals, travel plans by London residents and confidence by business travellers should be minor, it said, adding that any tourism setbacks could last as long as slumps spurred by other terrorist attacks around the world.

India, which has lived with terrorism long before 9/11, is no stranger to this unfortunate evil. Opinions gathered from a cross section of tourism professionals and segments, namely, the ministry, airlines, travel agents, tour operators or tourism partners like insurance companies and transport providers affirm that tourism worldwide is aware of the threat that terrorism poses but will not be worn down by it any more. Khalid Sohail, head (Travel Insurance) at Tata AIG, says, "9/11 was definitely an event that shook up the entire tourism industry. But it was a temporary phenomenon and with every challenge that came up, there was a positive development that came with it. If a lot of big budget airlines took a beating after 9/11, there was a new wave, especially in India that suddenly came into action - that of the low-cost carriers. We entered a new unexpected wave in the industry."

UNWTO had published a report entitled 'Tourism: 2020 Vision', which appraised the future of the WTO industry in the twenty-first century and forecast sustained growth for the next two decades. The predicted annual growth rate for tourist arrivals was 4.3 per cent, and the anticipated annual growth rate for international tourism receipts was 6.7 per cent. According to UNWTO's forecast, about 1.5 billion tourists would visit foreign countries annually by the year 2020, spending approximately US $2 trillion per year - or US $5 billion daily!

There are examples galore of destinations and regions wherein in tourism did take a temporary beating due to ill effects of terrorism but have regained lost time. Kashmir is the perfect example of a region that is consciously fighting the evils of terrorism through tourism. Sri Lanka is yet another endearing instance of a country fighting terrorism to the hilt while its tourism industry recorded encouraging growth simultaneously. Internationally too soon after the 9/11 attack, UNWTO issued a report conceding negative consequences on both domestic and international tourism. But the hope of tourism as a resilient sector which has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to overcome problems and weathered crises was also underscored.

Two senior professors both from the department of economics of their respective universities - one from Ohio State University and University of Central California conducted a research on 'Terrorism and Tourism: Is the Impact Permanent or Transitory?' They gathered evidence from some Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. The countries they based their research on was Egypt and Israel since both have experienced acts of terrorism and regional instability. In addition, both countries rely significantly on tourism as an important source of income. The findings suggested that in spite of shocks from terrorism, war and regional instability, visits by tourists remains a trend-reverting series.

M P Bezbaruah, former tourism secretary, government of India, and former chairman of PATA and permanent representative of UNWTO, feels that tourism has always overcome terrorism. "We at the UNWTO are convinced that tourism will be unaffected by terrorism. Despite other disturbances like the Gulf war and tsunami, we managed to fight back. Tourism is resilient and the number of people who believe in the positive aspect of tourism will see it through. During my tenure as tourism secretary in the year 1997-98, I was witness to the way in which Kashmir regained its tourism glory. Terrorist attacks certainly cause short-term damage to tourism but in the medium- to long-term, whether tourism returns or not depends to a large extent on whether the local population unequivocally rejects terrorism," he says.

Experts feel that luckily for tourism, the passion for travel both for business and leisure supercedes the fear of terrorism. There could be temporary ebb in travel but finally it is tourism that will emerge the winner. Anju Desai, head (Outbound) at Jetair Tours, says, "Just recently, I had a client who travelled to London via Paris and opted for the Euro Star to reach London. People are travelling, making their own permutations and combinations and doing their juggling act. People who have made up their minds to travel will travel. What may change is the destination for example, a person travelling to Sri Lanka, may postpone the plan or divert to another destination."

The WTTC has developed an action plan, together with leading security experts Objective Team, to limit potential damage wrought by terrorism - and ultimately to defeat it. Jean-Claude Baumgarten, WTTC president, says, "This will help travel and tourism in two main ways - it contains initiatives to counter the threat of terrorism and its implementation will put minds at ease. The resilience of the travelling public should not be underestimated. Experience shows that once an immediate threat has lifted, people's enthusiasm to travel rapidly returns. The industry is uniquely placed to help remove the causes of global terrorism as it is one of the conduits by which prosperity can flow from wealthier to poorer communities, helping to address the imbalance between the 'haves' and the 'have nots'. The more misunderstanding, intolerance and disparity of income is reduced, the less rationale there will be for the terrorist."

No doubt, the world is squaring up in earnest against terrorism but there is a parallel fear growing that that heightened security systems across the world, especially at country gateways, could itself put off travellers, if terrorism on its own doesn't. Suresh Shetty, minister of state for tourism, government of Maharashtra, begs to differ. "Security and safety of people and heightened security measures are a natural fallout of terrorism. Israel is an endearing example of unhindered pilgramages in hundreds and thousands inspite of a pall of uncertain security that hangs over the region. Human beings by their very nature love adventure. They will travel."

That last statement perhaps pays one of the richest tributes to the spirit of tourism that resides in every human being besides the affinity for peace. These are interesting, challenging times that now call for both these inclinations to be merged to ensure that peace and economic prosperity prevail over bloody savagery by letting it be known that the latter has nothing to gain but ignorance. Tourism has long since moved on and it's time to get the living world to follow suit.

Acts of terrorism, especially when tourists are the prime targets, have an exceedingly negative impact on tourism. In recent years we have witnessed the two Bali bombing incidents of October 2002 and October 2005 led to an immediate and massive downturn in tourism to Bali specifically and Indonesia more widely. In both incidents tourists were clearly the prime target and this created genuine fear amongst them. The September 11, 2001 attacks on New York had a global impact on tourism, not necessarily because tourists were the intended target but the modus operandi, using civilian aircraft as weapons of mass destruction created fear of flying. For six months after this global tourism dropped over 10 per cent. The foiled attack in UK's trans-Atlantic commercial flights is clear evidence that terrorism continues to target tourism.

Yes. India is an excellent example. Terrorism in Kashmir has badly damaged its tourism industry but India is such a vast and varied destination that it was possible for India Tourism to isolate the problems of Kashmir and actively promote tourism.

One of the most compelling examples of a country carrying on tourism promotion regardless of some severe attacks against tourism infrastructure and tourists has been Egypt which has witnessed some severe acts of terrorism in 2005 and 2006. Yet tourism to Egypt has continued to grow. Sri Lanka is another example.

In the long term, tourism will always win against terrorism. In some cases this will be a long battle but the forces of human desire to experience new destinations are stronger than the barriers against them. Terrorism certainly causes setbacks to tourism but tourists are becoming increasingly sophisticated in measuring risk.

The first measure any country needs to take is maximise security measures at all stages of the tourism cycle. It is impossible to guarantee total security but it is necessary that measures are being seen to be taken which hopefully will act as a deterrent to terrorists and reassure locals and tourists. Tourism authorities need to be open about risk and risk minimisation methods. This can include advice to arriving visitors about actions and places to avoid. This should not be seen as a scare tactic but as positive precautions. Destination marketing organisations should be open about both the positives and risk minimisation. If tourists are given honest and reliable advice they will feel more confident about positive messages.

Tourism marketing authorities should encourage and facilitate first hand visits of travel industry and media opinion leaders from key source markets to visit the destination and report back (hopefully positively) to their respective audiences.

The issue of travel advisories arouses passionate debate in Asia. The first thing one needs to understand about travel advisories is that they are designed as an extra-territorial security measure for citizens of travel generating countries. The protection of citizens is the prime duty of a government. We can legitimately debate whether travel advisories are accurate or fair. There are plenty of cases in which travel advisories fall down on both accuracy and fairness.

However, I believe that as more people travel, governments have a duty to provide them with advice. Travel advisories are more than security assessments. They advise about appropriate mores and customs and key legal issues which apply when travelling to certain destinations. I believe passionately that the travel industry should be more involved in working with government foreign ministries to ensure that travel advisories are fair, clear and accurate. Dialogue between the travel industry and foreign ministry officials of tourism generating countries will achieve far more positive outcomes than foot stamping and bellicose protests.

As to the issue of travel advisory levels, the practice in the UK and Australia is a five-point sale of risk ranging from minimal risk to avoid the destination. An issue which is frequently raised in Asia is that some Western countries are presumed to discriminate against developing countries in their risk assessment measurements. Commonly cited examples are that Western government travel advisories relating to the US, Spain and UK after significant terrorist attacks in those countries were more lenient than they were after terrorist incidents in Indonesia, Philippines or India. Questions like this are better negotiated between governments rather than being treated as a diplomatic affront.

Some elements of the media are very supportive of tourism while others are totally irresponsible. However, media should not be treated as a problem but as a partner. Destination marketing authorities need to work with media to ensure journalists experience the truth of a destination, especially those destinations which suffer from negative perceptions. The tourism industry needs to communicate with the media on a regular basis. Press releases and good websites are a start but personal contacts need to be developed so that journalists have a trusted source to deal with.

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